Whether decaffeinated, regular, black, latte, or CBD coffee we are in love with this drink. However, if climate change continues with its rampaging rate, we’ll probably need to renounce the sophisticated blends or turn to GMOs to preserve them.
This is what three algorithms show in the computer simulations of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s.
Like cocoa, coffee is susceptible to climate change, and just 30% of Ethiopean land is suitable for growing high-quality specialty coffees.
That said, climate change is already turning the once rainy and moderate East African climate into an unstable and dry land, with longer drought periods and higher temperatures.
This is bad news given that Ethiopia, considered the birthplace of coffee, is still its leading producer worldwide, along with Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya.
While the production of the average coffee will actually rise, the more tasty varieties might get extinct. In fact, another study shows that we are decades away from the extinction of 60% of wild coffee varieties worldwide.
Indeed, global estimations are even gloomier. Namely, if climate change is not slowed down by the use of cleaner energy sources like solar energy, researchers anticipate a 50% loss of coffee-growing areas by 2050.
Still, other areas may become more grow-friendly, but it takes years for coffee plants to bear fruits, and farmers can’t simply pack up and move town.
Luckily, studies like this one can help predict trends and prepare both the market and farmers for what’s coming ahead. Plus, if Ethiopia follows Costa Rica’s scenario of early planning, it can take measures to absorb climate-induced blows to coffee production.